Pokemon, plain and simple. Along with Smash Bros. Those two alone would probably get it really close or well over. Factor in other games like Octopath Traveler, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, and anything announced for E3 and I think it'll actually hit above Nintendo's goals. It just depends on if Nintendo can make enough Switch units.
Things are relatively slowing down for Switch at this point in time but a game like Pokemon will easily cause shortages of Switch units.