| thismeintiel said: Last gen only lasted so long because MS and Sony wanted to recoup a lot of the money they lost earlier in the gen. This gen has played out exactly like the PS1 and PS2 Era. Sony massively in the lead, with great sales. In fact, the PS1 and PS2 had better sales, 21M and 20M respectively, the years before they launched their successors. Sony wants to stay on top with momentum continuing in their favor. Not risk losing it, or losing sales to a competitor who launches earlier, because they wanted to wait for sales to really take a dive. Just to appease some armchair analysts who aren't ready for next gen?Guess what, just like any gen, you don't have to jump in right away. To me, it's very telling with all the rumors we have been getting recently, PS4 sales starting to decline slightly, and now Sony specifically mentioning HW. I'm sticking with my prediction of a late 2019 launch most likely, with a slight possibility of them holding off til 2020. But, that will be the absolute latest. Those people thinking they may wait til 2021 or 2022 are just insane. |
This gen is nothing like the PS1 and PS2 gen.... can't stress that enough. For one particular reason... PS+ subscriptions. That changes the dynamic of things a lot. And there are no clear indications of the PS4 declining in sales recently, the can have a weaker first half of the year and a much stronger second half, kinda like how last yar it was the reverse. If at the end of the year the PS4 pushes another 20M sales or even 19M, thats not "decline" enough for sony or anyone to be concerned.
| thismeintiel said: Using your logic, there was no reason to release the PS2 until another year or two later. Same goes for PS3. Both the PS1 and PS2 had better sales then the PS4 will have this year, the year prior to when their successors launched. And using the split userbase logic, we should never get new systems. A new gen always splits the userbase. But, we usually get cross gen games for the first year or two to help soften that blow and, the true reason, to take advantage of the userbase who will join next gen later. And hold off til 2021? How can people seriously consider this. The latest MS is going to hold off is 2020. This gen isn't going the greatest for them, so they are looking to get out at the soonest possible time. Is Sony really going let them have a year on the market without their own HW? With the PS4 declining in popularity and interest, probably having sold ~12M-13M in 2020, at that point? That would be a horrible decision. |
Again with the PS2 and PS3.... you can't talk about those and not talk about what else was on the market. With the PS2 sega had already released the dreamcast. With the Ps3 MS had released the 360. Stop talking about those consoles like they existed in a vacum and that their release schedule is a clear indication of how sony operates. Competition makes a world of difference.
I don't think either sony or MS is gong to hold onto 2021.... but I don't see any of them releasing before 2020 either. Sp 2020 is when they are released.
And when I said sony could allow MS go first I didn't mean go first by a year. They could allow them go first be reveal alone and launch the same month with the next XB or launch 3-6 months later. Depending on what kinda hardware changes they need to implement to match or exceed whatever the XB2 announces.
Having what at that time could be as much as 50M PS+ subscribers tied to the playstation gives them that kinda luxury. Which is also why sony is so against cross platform online play this gen too.
