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thismeintiel on 11 May 2018
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VAMatt said:
Intrinsic said:

So you're expecting the PS5 to be revealed in feb/march 2019?

Yes I know its in line with this notion that they will launch a new console after 6yrs, but I think they don't operate that way anymore.

Everyone that thinks that is basing it off the PS1/PS2, but the PS3 had a 7yr cycle, so technically if they go for 7 with the PS4 too then it will be setting a 50/50 precedent across 4 generations. 2 of 3 isn't enough to call a trend.

For me though I just see no reason why they should, whatever they can make in 2019, will be better in 2020 or at the very least cheaper. They still have momentum right now and aren't showing any real signs of slowing down. Their biggest competitor is also about 40M in sales behind and just released new hardware so is even less likely to do a follow up. There just isn't a reason to rush to market with a PS5 IMO.

The way I see it, sony can afford to sell around 2M less consoles this year than they did last year, then about 2-3M less consoles next year than they do this year and only then can they start to say this gen is taperring off. Even at that, it still puts them at well over 105M sold before the PS5 is even announced.

Right.  It would make no sense to move on to a new generation at this point.  Remember, the money is made on software.  Sony has a huge slice of the hardware market right now, which means they have a huge slice of the software market.  The larger the PS4 install base gets, the larger the potential sales of PS4 games.  Why would they want to break that giant user base up?   I think 2020 at the earliest for a PS5.  I wouldn't be surprised if they held of until 2021.  

With that said, if MS started pulling PS4 users over to Xbone, they could certainly speed that cycle up, in order to keep gamers in the PS family.  I see no evidence of that happening at this point, at least not in any big way.

Using your logic, there was no reason to release the PS2 until another year or two later. Same goes for PS3.  Both the PS1 and PS2 had better sales then the PS4 will have this year, the year prior to when their successors launched. And using the split userbase logic, we should never get new systems. A new gen always splits the userbase. But, we usually get cross gen games for the first year or two to help soften that blow and, the true reason, to take advantage of the userbase who will join next gen later.

And hold off til 2021? How can people seriously consider this. The latest MS is going to hold off is 2020.  This gen isn't going the greatest for them, so they are looking to get out at the soonest possible time. Is Sony really going let them have a year on the market without their own HW? With the PS4 declining in popularity and interest, probably having sold ~12M-13M in 2020, at that point? That would be a horrible decision.