Intrinsic said:
So you're expecting the PS5 to be revealed in feb/march 2019? Yes I know its in line with this notion that they will launch a new console after 6yrs, but I think they don't operate that way anymore. Everyone that thinks that is basing it off the PS1/PS2, but the PS3 had a 7yr cycle, so technically if they go for 7 with the PS4 too then it will be setting a 50/50 precedent across 4 generations. 2 of 3 isn't enough to call a trend. For me though I just see no reason why they should, whatever they can make in 2019, will be better in 2020 or at the very least cheaper. They still have momentum right now and aren't showing any real signs of slowing down. Their biggest competitor is also about 40M in sales behind and just released new hardware so is even less likely to do a follow up. There just isn't a reason to rush to market with a PS5 IMO. The way I see it, sony can afford to sell around 2M less consoles this year than they did last year, then about 2-3M less consoles next year than they do this year and only then can they start to say this gen is taperring off. Even at that, it still puts them at well over 105M sold before the PS5 is even announced. |
Last gen only lasted so long because MS and Sony wanted to recoup a lot of the money they lost earlier in the gen. This gen has played out exactly like the PS1 and PS2 Era. Sony massively in the lead, with great sales. In fact, the PS1 and PS2 had better sales, 21M and 20M respectively, the years before they launched their successors. Sony wants to stay on top with momentum continuing in their favor. Not risk losing it, or losing sales to a competitor who launches earlier, because they wanted to wait for sales to really take a dive. Just to appease some armchair analysts who aren't ready for next gen?Guess what, just like any gen, you don't have to jump in right away.
To me, it's very telling with all the rumors we have been getting recently, PS4 sales starting to decline slightly, and now Sony specifically mentioning HW. I'm sticking with my prediction of a late 2019 launch most likely, with a slight possibility of them holding off til 2020. But, that will be the absolute latest. Those people thinking they may wait til 2021 or 2022 are just insane.
