The gaming industry is in a very unique position compared to the movie and music industry, so I don't think comparisons work here. Since there is barely any choice on hardware, the consumed medium is completely up to a handful of manufacturers, all of which prefer digital over physical. So physical gaming isn't done, when consumers decide, but as soon as the hardware makers decide it's time to switch. And while Blurays and CDs will always be backwards compatible to older hardware, physical games will not.
I'm looking forward to the day someone is brave enough to make the first mainstream digital only console.
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