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BlackBeauty said:
Why are people surprised by the forecast? It’s literally dead in japan.

PS5 is coming close I feel.

You literally don't know the meaning of the word literally. Words matter, please choose them them wisely :)

Some recent sales numbers from Japan in March.

PlatformWeekly (change)Total
NS 44,874 (+12%) 3,823,113
PS4 19,987 (-43%) 6,457,900
3DS 11,385 (+4%) 23,995,282
PSV 6,609 (+36%) 5,759,075
XOne 256 (-13%) 93,062

Xbox One is figuratively dead, due to its low sales in Japan. If Xbox One sold 0 units, then it would literally be dead :). Xbox One is on life support in Japan.

Agreed that Sony aren't selling as well as Switch in Japan, at the moment, but they are hardly dead. It will be interesting to see how the unit sales change in April with God of War being reviewed well, even in Japan. 

I'm still of the opinion that Switch, like Wii, is another rather big fad. By the end of 2018 everyone's Switch will be sitting in the closet right next to their Wiis. Power to Nintendo for tapping into the right fad every couple years and keeping their investors happy. Let's hope they don't release a Switch-U.

Lastly, not doing well in 1 region doesn't automatically mean a new console is on the horizon. If that was a valid console release strategy Microsoft would need to release a new console every year because they systematically do badly in Japan. They just don't understand the Japanese market. I'm hoping one day the penny will drop and they'll be competitive there, eventually.