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thismeintiel on 26 April 2018
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Pachofilauri said:
thismeintiel said:

Uh no. The Switch would only have sold more because possibly there would have been more stock by then. Other than that, it would have sold the exact same. Last gen had been going on for 8 years when the PS4 and XBO launched. People were desperate for a new gen. The PS4, like I said, would have sold the exact amount because it sold as much as they manufactured. Doesn't matter when it launched.

You don't manufacture the same amount of units for a month like March as you do for the holidays. 

You do when you're launching a new piece of HW. Sony only outshipped them by 1M for their launch quarter (4.5M VS 3.5M.) Sony's normal shipment number for that quarter is 6M-7M. Launching during the holiday season doesn't change a thing if your HW is popular, because you can only make so many. Had Nintendo had 4.5M units ready in March, they probably would have sold that much, too.

zorg1000 said: 
thismeintiel said: 
So, it's dropped ~2.1M below the PS4, launches aligned. Personally, I never saw it hitting PS4 numbers, anyway. That's not to say it will do poorly. 3DS numbers, and probably a little beyond, should be doable (~75M-85M.) Year 3-4 are going to be the telling years. Will legs hold out. Or will it start to drop like the Wii.

I think it will blow past 3DS numbers. Here are how they compare per region.

Switch

Japan-4.38 million

Americas-7.14 million

Other-6.27 million

Total-17.79 million

3DS

Japan-5.85 million

Americas-5.99 million

Other-5.30 million

Total-17.13 million

 

Switch is trailing in Japan by just under 1.5 million but is ahead outside of Japan by over 2 million.

Its also worth noting that the early price cut caused 3DS to peak quite early, its first full fiscal year was its peak year. Switch is comfortably ahead in the West at full price and could very well catch up in Japan once the price comes down.

I personally think 100 million is very possible.

I could see a scenario where 100M is possible. It all depends on how years 3-4 turn out. If it plays out similar to Wii's drop, then no. 

JSG87 said: 
thismeintiel said: 

Uh no. The Switch would only have sold more because possibly there would have been more stock by then. Other than that, it would have sold the exact same. Last gen had been going on for 8 years when the PS4 and XBO launched. People were desperate for a new gen. The PS4, like I said, would have sold the exact amount because it sold as much as they manufactured. Doesn't matter when it launched.

 

Regardless. November/December it will blow past ps4. And then the ps4 will fly past the switch again. Ot doesn't matter though. The swit h has put up fantastic numbers either way.

That last sentence is definitely true.