Actually 1.29m seems pretty high for this particular period. So yes, I would say it is undertracked, just not to the level people think.
No it's doesn't. We've always gone with ~1M-1.5M when considering what's out in the open compared to shipment numbers, which when companies give out shipped and sold, it seems to hold up. Only two times that would be incorrect. One is a shortage, which the Switch is definitely not having. And the other is the end of the holidays, at which point its usually 2.5M-3.5M.