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MasonADC said:
For just games that launched in its second year, it should be 7
Kirby, Octopath, Mario Tennis, Fire Emblem, Smash, Yoshi, and the mysterious Holiday Game(assuming it is not already on the list). Any third party games already announced so far doesn't have a chance IMO.

What about Tropical Freeze? As for third party.... maybe Crash.... and perhaps Lego Incredibles could do it, Lego City got to 0.5m and that's an old port on a lower installbase.

Captain Toad also has a chance I think.