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Unless they severely mismanaged their finances, there's no way Arms was a flop given it probably sold around 2 million with digital included. For a new and fairly simple fighter genre title on a platform they didn't even know would be an enormous hit while the game was in production, it would be rather silly for them to expect more than that.

Given this is Nintendo who almost always air on the side of caution when it comes to making a profit, I doubt they spent so much on development and marketing to actually come away from that game in the red. While not as huge as Splatoon, I can't imagine they thought it would reach that level.