To OP: No, a nuclear war is not likely at all. It didn't happen throughout the Cold War, so what makes it so likely that it will now? Do you think Putin and Russia are prepared for a nuclear war? Do you think USA is? Do you think anyone actually contemplates such a prospect?
Facts: Nuclear weapons exist solely for the reason of averting a nuclear war. This concept is called deterrence, and in various forms the theory has held up correctly, through both the two nuclear ages.
Facts: Tannenwald has put forward the academic theory that nuclear weapons have now become a taboo. If you find this unlikely, maybe you can listen to Paul, who argues that nuclear weapons have now become status symbols, and are not obtained to be used in a war.
Facts: Deterrence works particularly well when you have two large powers like USA and Russia. The vast numbers of nuclear weapons means that any attack faces a retaliatory attack that would mean the end of both countries. This 'second strike' capability, which is ensured by both Russia and USA, means that it is in no one's interests to initiate a nuclear war.
Facts: Nuclear weapons minimize the risk of all out war between major superpowers. They are the reason we went from two world wars and numerous wars involving great powers before 1945, to no wars between major powers since. Instead we have witnessed the rise of proxy wars (during the Cold War), and the increase in civil wars (including Syria). There is no interest for a war between Russia and USA. The only ones who are going to suffer are going to be places like Syria, Libya, and other places where these great powers 'intervene'. A nuclear war is as likely as a fly catching fire and causing a wildfire.
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