Interesting analysis. Had no idea so many Nintendo systems peaked their first year. That obviously won't be the case with the Switch. Just like the Wii it was supply constrained for much of its first year, though probably not quite as long as the Wii was. I think year 2 will probably be right around year 1 for the Switch. Then at the beginning of year 3 I think we'll see a price cut, plus Pokemon that year and probably a couple other major AAA Nintendo games after a slow second year software-wise. Plus third party games should start arriving in serious quality on the Switch in year 3. I think year 3-5 will be the peak years with major software and price cuts and revisions, perhaps doing 60 million during those 3 years. Then dying off the next 2 to 3 years as the next Nintendo system releases and takes over sales.
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