Predicting Switch sales

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Interesting that the NES and GB sales curves were left off, but they are two of the more unusual ones. The Famicom launched to a slow start in 83, but by 85 was going strong in Japan. Then NES launched in one city only in 85, didn't reach a nationwide release until 87 and then peaked in the US in 89. Putting the two markets together it probably peaked in either year 5 or 6.

The original Gameboy has more of a roller coaster sales curve where it was high the first few years, dipped down a lot for a couple of years and then shot back up again. The first 6 years wouldn't really tell the whole story for the Gameboy.

Basically what I am saying is that unconventional sales curves can happen, especially when you recognize the console is operating under unusual circumstances. I believe the Switch is operating under unusual circumstances, so it won't clearly fit any of these sales curves. It will go down a little bit in its second year, but then really take off like the DS sales curve in later years. I don't think it will quite get as high as 200m+ in only 6 years (like the table suggests), but that is only because I don't think Nintendo will make that many consoles. Instead Switch will be supply constrained during years 3-5. The number of consoles they sell will be limited by the number of consoles they make.