In progress NPD predicting tool

[Symbios63]

globalisateur said:

Symbios63 said:
March Overview (Only 8 days of data) :

Amazon :
PS4 : 99.1 ; XBO : 97.2 ; NS : 155.6 ; 3DS : 0

Best Buy :
PS4 : 184.2 ; XBO : 221.9 ; NS : 163.0 ; 3DS : 6.5

Gamestop :
PS4 : 153.8 ; XBO : 142.8 ; NS : 80.2 ; 3DS : 29.6

Walmart :
PS4 : 261.2 ; XBO : 375.4 ; NS : 168.5 ; 3DS : 45.5

Target :
PS4 : 179.9 ; XBO : 177.4 ; NS : 189.9 ; 3DS : 38.0


Overall :

1 - XBO : 961.6 points/day
2 - PS4 832.5 points/day
3 - NS : 727.1 points/day
4 - 3DS : 163.9 points/day

If we take the data at face value, XBO will win March. PS4 will be second and NS will come third. If we are even more nuts, we will have, XBO sales being 1.0 : PS4 sales at 0.87 and NS sales at 0.76.

Now let's wait and see how wrong this is, and twist things accordingly for next month...(with a full month of data)

Beware, you should take into account the market share of each retailers. First and most important is Gamestop. On Amazon the last 10 days or so PS4 was actually only available for Prime members (now sold out).

On Gamestop there is free game ($60) given for every XBX sold. XBX was fourth behind 4 PS4 SKUs before that deal;

PS4 will win march and April. 3 months in a row after February (and won January by revenue)

Well, that is why I wrote "If we take the data at face value"...lol

1) March 2018 is the first month we try to do this, tool will improve over time when we can compare to NPD results and adjust the formula accordingly. 2) We only have 8 days for march we don't know how those list were at the beginning of the month (minus amazon). 3) You are free to use those numbers, twist them in a way that seems accurate to you and share the results (I will start to adjust when March NPD results come in and I have concrete data to work with...)