| Bodhesatva said: I think MGS4 and FF can, more or less. A lot of it is dependant on how "hardcore" the userbase is. Mario Sunshine and Mario Kart: DD and SSBM all sold very well on the Gamecube, despite a much smaller userbase than either than N64 or the Wii. This is because these are very traditional franchises with a very loyal following. I think the same will apply to FF and seems to be applying to MGS4: the fans of these franchises will follow them anywhere, no matter what the install base, no matter what the cost. They are very, very loyal. Gran Turismo I personally believe is still hardcore, but a bit more casual than the other two -- therefore I believe it will see a noticable but not terrible drop off, something in the 25% range. Other similar franchises: Smash Bros, Halo. |
I agree with this.
A large portion of GT's sales come from avid racing fans in Europe as opposed to avid gaming fans. I don't think they'd be as likely to own a ps3 by the time GT5 rolls around (or be as inclinced to purchase one when it does roll around) as FF or MGS fans.
I see both MGS and FF toppiing the 5 million mark, with FF probably going on to ~7 million total sales.
