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I think it's safe to say that Mario + Rabbids and Pokken will both outsell ARMS and 1-2 Switch. I don't know when Pokken will (relatively soon though, at least), but Mario and Rabbids should beat them both before February. Granted that their legs will sustain after the holiday season.

That will be the inaugural of third-party software beating out Nintendo's first-party games in terms of sales. Though these games still derive from Nintendo IPing to sell. I was hoping Skyrim could do better, but this, this is fine for now. Both it and FIFA should hit 1 million this year.