School Shooting in South Florida

[Cyran]

numberwang said:

Cyran said:

I would argue it has more to do with the increase in mass incarceration.

Notice the trends almost match your chart exactly including the dips (for males).

Obama had a take on it before he was President: fatherless children are 20x more likely to end in prison explaining the correlation between the rise of dysfunctional families and imprisonment.

"But if we are honest with ourselves, we’ll admit that what too many fathers also are is missing — missing from too many lives and too many homes. They have abandoned their responsibilities, acting like boys instead of men. And the foundations of our families are weaker because of it.
You and I know how true this is in the African-American community. We know that more than half of all black children live in single-parent households, a number that has doubled — doubled — since we were children. We know the statistics — that children who grow up without a father are five times more likely to live in poverty and commit crime; nine times more likely to drop out of schools and 20 times more likely to end up in prison. They are more likely to have behavioral problems, or run away from home or become teenage parents themselves. And the foundations of our community are weaker because of it."

https://www.politico.com/story/2008/06/text-of-obamas-fatherhood-speech-011094

I offer it a vicious cycle that started with the war on drugs (Nixon declared it in 1971 and notice not much after that when the big raise started).  Then the children of those fathers thrown in jail follows what Obama was talking about which increases the slope at a fast rate.  The second bump on the chart after it started going down a little because of the booming economy happened a little after bill Clinton 1994 crime bill.  

I don't think you can ignore the affect criminal policy have had and blame it 100% on poverty.