| Leadified said: Bold: I am blaming the US for it's foreign policy, I've touched upon how Venezuela caused it's own economic problems in other posts. I am not sure how you can say that US has nothing to do with Venezuela when the US has become an involved party in the Venezuelan crisis, that just doesn't really make any sense. Venezuela is a country of geopolitical significance, the country has massive oil and natural gas reserves but has managed not only to remain out of the US sphere of influence but work against it. Meanwhile Russia has been helping to prop up the regime in Venezuela to maintain the balance of power in the region. Military intervention in Venezuela would go poorly and it would probably help to actually unify Venezuela behind Maduro since the US would essentially be proving him right that the US is attempting to directly sink the country. Like Libya and Syria, the best time for intervention is during a civil war where it would help to give some legitimacy to the opposition and provide a casus belli to the international community. For now, the US can use it's economic power to pressure Venezuela, which is exactly what it is doing. |
What I mean is that they are involved now, trying to achieve some objectives (getting rid of Maduro). I'm just pointing that the whole crisis didn't started because of the US and even if there was zero US involvement it would still be almost as bad as it is now (and it seems we agree on that).
I also agree that military action would be a disaster for US foreign relations, specially with Latin America. The US is linked to several coups and is also not considered a reliable ally (Falkland war situation, that resulted in Latin countries refusing to help the US with Iraq and the end of the Rio treaty). But since the end of the Cold War the relations seem to have healed a bit, so it wouldn't be on their best interests to ruin this.
I would say that the country the US fears most in relation to Latin America is not Russia, but China. While the Bolivarian governments seem to have an infatuations with the old URSS idea, the real treat to US hegemony in the region is Chinese money. With Trump avoiding trading deals or simply exiting existing ones, China is an interesting partner with plenty of demand for Latin exports.
Anyway, I don't think the Venezuela situation will escalate to a Civil War. We will probably see a coup (US involved or not with it) in the next few years.
