xMetroid said:
Jaxyfoo said:
I don't get these guaranteed 90-150m for Switch comments. I love mine, but looking around I see a different picture. Maybe it will, but it's oh so early. Also next gen is likely 2 years off, which will see people buying those. Will Switch follow and give a new more powerful upgrade, or will it release a New system. So firstly I question it having the longevity to sell those numbers.
Then I look at the people in general buying Switch. Looking around the communities I belong to, a huge chunk of the core gamers and fans already have one. There might be people not on board yet, but I'm not convinced this is a huge growth area. There won't be huge growth into the fan base that mainly plays Cod, Fifa and GTA.
Lots of hipsters seem to have jumped on board too. Alongside trend following mums who owned a Wii, and see it as a safe environment. It is nice to see them come back from being lost to tablets and phone games. I think it is also this section which is distorting online versus store sales. I look at this section as the most fickle too. They could grow and explode, or move on to the next hot thing. I think I need another year to decide here.
Then onto portable gamers. This is another area that needs more watching before flippant guarantees. I didn't know many portable only people pre Switch in honesty. I'm surprised how many people only play portable and have mostly never owned mainstream consoles. To an extent I Don't feel qualified to judge it's growth.
I just don't see that level. I can see 15-20m this year and next happily. Then I can't see anything but decline. I can easily see it topping out below 80m. That's all before I See how the games shape up. If the gaming content was too front loaded into last year, I might revise that 80m estimate down too. It is just so soon to be giving a current gen gold medal to a console that has sold around 15m. |
I don't see it doing under the 3DS. I has so much more hype and demand then the 3DS with an higher price tag and will have every single system seller Nintendo has. Thinking most people that wanted one got one in 10 months is crazy. It's still out of stock in Japan and is getting still out of stock on Amazon US... we haven't even seen the baseline of it's sales yet and it also needs to release in some markets like China, where they have a huge killer app.
Not saying 100 million is guaranteed, but based on what we have seen so far, doing under the 3DS's sales would be a disappointment.
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Yodobashi Camera, which is one of Japan's largest electronics retailers just got Switch back in stock, I think it might be worth seeing how long it takes for them to sell through their stock, just to see how the general momentum is now in Japan after the MHW launch.
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