freebs2 on 25 January 2018
| haxxiy said: Assuming it is made by TSMC and Nvidia, and it needs to be 6 times faster than the Switch, then: 10 nm TSMC = 2x shrink, available this year already 7 nm TSMC = 2.8x shrink, 2019-2020 5 nm TSMC = 4x shrink, maybe 2021? 3.5 nm TSMC = 8x shrink, maybe 2023-2024, coincidentally also TSMC's last planned node shrink. Add one or two years since brand-new nodes are rarely used for consoles, but accounting for more efficient GPU architectures, I'd say between 5-8 years. Let the too optimistic be reminded, of course, that the Tegra X1 once had the hype it could maybe match current consoles, and look how it turned out. |
The performance gain is more than linear when the node shrinks. On TDP parity you have 2 kind of gains. You can fit more transistors in the same area and since operating temperatures are lower you can increase clock speed. Maybe I'm a bit too optimistic but I think a performance between the OG XB1 and OG PS4 (28nm designs) could be potentially achieved on a 7nm chip.
