Well given the recent rumors lately along with OP's pessimism or realism should I say, I think it's about time to revisit this topic ...
There's a few fatal flaws that Nintendo has with the Switch that'll keep them from reaching their expectations and let alone reaching performance close to juggernauts including the PS4 which arguably made the least amount of mistakes out of all the current platforms but still probably won't get to the same level as the two beasts. Some of those flaws are just inherent weaknesses and others are their decisions/executions ...
Let's begin with their biggest inherent disadvantage ...
Switch's appeal is not enough to overcome Nintendo's weak brand power in Europe and we can see this in comparison to their predecessor the 3DS, as both are sitting at ~2.9M units on the 51st week at the year they launched in ... (honestly just this reason alone is enough to rule out that they can realistically reach their 20M unit target)
Here's several missteps that Nintendo did ...
Switch's pricing is not a virtue and people should not argue it to be such. The DS could not have sold as much as it did if it launched at $299 since it discourages multiple unit ownership by household as it becomes prohibitively expensive for a household to own multiple units ...
Nintendo failed to followup with their 2017 lineup in comparison to their competition. Aside from maybe the rumored Smash Bros remaster the rest of their lineup is not good enough. LABO is not good enough and we can see this on Amazon where Nintendo products are usually over represented that it's getting beaten by older Nintendo titles and it keeps falling further behind in the daily rankings too. Ports of old games being the majority of the lineup is absolutely not acceptable either ...
