Predict Switch Sales and Factors in Switch Sales in 2018 (Thoughts & Poll Included)

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I'm thinking 10-15m, momentum generally the same (or really a little less).

Nintendo had an extremely good first party line-up it's first year: Mario Kart, 3D Mario, and the best Zelda in several decades, plus several other 1st party titles. Nintendo has Pokemon still, but I don't think Pokemon is coming til 2019. The leap from 3DS to Switch means it will need a little extra development time. Switch will also have much better 3rd party support in 2019.

I don't think 2018 will be nearly as good as either of those years. It still has a couple of other strong titles for 2018 like Smash Bros or Animal Crossing, but I don't think that will be enough to really increase momentum over 2017. Also Nintendo is releasing it's online service this year. I expect it will have some kinks that will have to be smoothed out. I expect the service to be good eventually, but Nintendo seems out of their water with anything involving the internet.

So a combination of less impressive first party games and an initially disappointing online service will kill a little of the Switch's momentum.