I believe Obama will defeat McCain. I believe Obama's victory margin in regards to the EC will be greater than what Source has stated. I predict the EC vote to be 292-246 in favor of Obama. I know Barr makes Georgia a possibility for Obama, but Georgia has been overwhelmingly Republican. Not even President Clinton could win Georgia, so I doubt Obama will. I also believe people are overestimating the effect Barr will have on the race. Historically, third party candidates only win a significant portion of the vote when they have a defining issue as a part of their party platform. Ross Perot had NAFTA, Wallace and the AIP had segregation, the Populists had "free silver" and so on. The only two who have bucked this trend are the Progressives in 1912, and John B. Anderson in 1980. I believe Obama wins Ohio and Pennsylvania. I know it is a little more nuanced than this, but McCain has been a staunch advocate of free trade and NAFTA. NAFTA (free trade) is anathema to the people of Ohio and Pennsylvania. They also have two popular Democratic governors who should help deliver their respective states.
I also predict the Democratic Caucus (49 Dems plus Lieberman and Sanders) will win a supermajority in the US Senate. The composition of the senate is, to me, the most intriguing part of the upcoming election. With Justices Ginsberg and Stevens expected to retire during the next president's term, having a supermajority to invoke cloture on any GOP filibustering could tilt the Supreme Court firmly to the progressive side.
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