| Slimebeast said: You are a great number cruncher, but there is a huge flaw in your prediction. You think only in terms of "consoles usually peak in it's X year, then drop off" and really only have data from last gen to base this upon. I'll go right at the point. The "general feel" of this gen, is that it is only 1.5 years old (since launch of PS3 n Wii). In June in Xbox's peak year, 2004, which was it's third lifetime year just as 2008 is X360's third lifetime year, the generation was actually perceived as being already 3.5 years old (counting from the US launch of PS2 in Nov 2000). So obviously the Xbox was gonna have it's peak in 2004 and drop off from there. So Im saying that u cant just align 2004 of Xbox with 2008 of X360 and draw all conclusions from that! There is a big difference when you are releasing 1 year ahead of the others, compared with being 1 year late! |
I don't quite understand how old the generation is has anything to do with when a consoles peak year occurs. Of course, the other problem with determining peak years is that launches that aren't close together can sometimes make it appear that a peak has occured at a different time, depending on how you view the data.
If we align regional launches, and then look at yearly sales (with one year being 52 weeks), then the PS2, Xbox, GC, and possibly the PSP and DS (though I don't have the sales broken down, so I couldn't say for certain) all have their peak years as their third year. From this I feel I can say that no matter how successful or unsuccessful (to a point of course) your console is, it's most likely going to peak during the third year of it's life. Now, as for years, according to aligned to launch method, the PS2's peak year was in the 2002 - early 2003 timeframe (though the actual timeframe differs by region). The Xbox's and GC's peak years were in late 2003 to early 2005 (varies by region).
If we go by actual calendar years, then the peak years for the PS2, Xbox, and GC were 2002, 2004, and 2003 (respectively). I believe the GC's earlier peak year because of it's slightly earlier launch, the fact that it actually sold in Japan, which has an earlier peak time, and the Xbox's sales advantage in Others, which has a slightly later peak time.
So it's not "how old is the generation?" it's "how old is the console?" Otherwise, the GC and Xbox would have peaked in 2002, at which time they would have only been a year old or so. But they didn't. They peaked in roughly their third years.
Finally, I didn't really want to bring it up, but I think a lot of people are starting to forget how dominate the Wii is becoming. And if it hasn't already, then it's going to start stealing potention customers. To many here (the hardcore users), the fact that the Wii isn't getting some of the biggest games of the generation may be a turn-off, but to many (as in, the majority, the casual), they don't really care, they'll simply find a similar game and go with that. And that's the problem some 3rd publishers should start fearing. What if some no-name developer comes out with a decent game that was once dominated by one or two big name games? Especially if they're similar enough to the game that the users are use to. All of the sudden some 3rd party big games might not be as important, or may have more competition. So 3rd parties have to either release some big name games on the Wii, or invent new IPs and have them be similar to their old IPs, but with a fresh start that better uses the Wii to its strenghts. Now if (though more like when) this starts happening (E3 anyone?), then a good amount of the thunder will be taken from the 360 (and the PS3).
We only have to look at the N64, which had a slew of great games (including some of the best FPS, which are all the rave now), yet only managed 32 million world wide.
And once again, Microsoft saying they will support the console for 6-7 years, doesn't matter if 3rd parties aren't. Though I doubt the 360 will be void of 3rd party games by later 2010 or 2011, I believe the Wii will have a good majority of it, meaning that as the years go on, sales drop further and faster.
I'm standing by my prediction. If it reaches 50 million, that'll be the max. You can call me out in 3 or 4 years if I'm wrong, but I just can't see it doing that.
