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thismeintiel on 05 January 2018
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RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

Thats your opinion, to me it's unknown. i mean we can look at sales data and say no way would 3ds end up at only 75 million, same thing for wiiu 14 million, or even wii, there is no way it would just do 100 million. you never know what a console might end up at, and today market is very different then anytime before it.

lol notice i never mentioned ps4 winning in a huge margin in December, but november it was a giving, besides people insulted or called me crazy/fanboy for making the right prediction in november. 

It's disingenious to portray pre-launch expectations as the same as expectations after 9-10 months of sales. There's a lot more clarity after almost a year of sales. You know if a system has struggled or if it's riding a wave of success, so it's quite straightforward to predict how things will continue.

In 2017 we had Switch win 6 out of 9 NPDs it was avaiable in (December is still pending). Switch's losses came in a month of heavy supply constraints (May), a month with Gold and Silver Editions for the PS4 (June) and in Black Friday month (November, $199 PS4). Switch has one special win (launch month March), but the general trend was that in an ordinary month for all consoles, Switch comes out on top. This can be expected to continue in 2018 and Amazon should be a quite reliable indicator for sales. In the last four years there have been only one or two occasions where Amazon wasn't representative.

Let's be honest, Nintendo consoles have been all over the place as of late. After a year or two of the Wii, people were calling it the PS2 killer. It was going take that crown. What happened? After 3 years it started nosediving and had to crawl past 100M, not even matching the PS1. The Wii U was going to be a big hit, it was the follow up to the Wii, after all. And it had a year of no competition. What happened? It failed to even hit 20M.  Then, we had the great shrinkage in the handheld market, leading to the 3DS to only hit half of the DS, while Sony completely bowed out. 

The point is no one knows. It could continue to do well and completely blow past the 3DS. It could start to lose steam in a couple of years, putting it around the 3DS in the end. Or it could start falling hard in a year or two, as casuals move on to something else. Personally, I think it's going to be the middle one, but who knows.