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quickrick on 04 January 2018
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RolStoppable said:
quickrick said:

Thats your opinion, to me it's unknown. i mean we can look at sales data and say no way would 3ds end up at only 75 million, same thing for wiiu 14 million, or even wii, there is no way it would just do 100 million. you never know what a console might end up at, and today market is very different then anytime before it.

lol notice i never mentioned ps4 winning in a huge margin in December, but november it was a giving, besides people insulted or called me crazy/fanboy for making the right prediction in november. 

It's disingenious to portray pre-launch expectations as the same as expectations after 9-10 months of sales. There's a lot more clarity after almost a year of sales. You know if a system has struggled or if it's riding a wave of success, so it's quite straightforward to predict how things will continue.

In 2017 we had Switch win 6 out of 9 NPDs it was avaiable in (December is still pending). Switch's losses came in a month of heavy supply constraints (May), a month with Gold and Silver Editions for the PS4 (June) and in Black Friday month (November, $199 PS4). Switch has one special win (launch month March), but the general trend was that in an ordinary month for all consoles, Switch comes out on top. This can be expected to continue in 2018 and Amazon should be a quite reliable indicator for sales. In the last four years there have been only one or two occasions where Amazon wasn't representative.

switch didn't meet launch demand for a long time, many of those buyers are early adopters. next year i expect ps4 to win most npd's. this console imo will have it's best the first year with most nintendo fans buying it early just look at how nintedo games are selling on the thing it's mind blowing.