KBG29 said:
We are definitly not on the same page. First I see absolutely no reason for a PS4 Portable to aim for PS4 Pro levels of power. Base PS4 games at 1080p on a 5 - 6" display would look incredible already. I can see a $300 - $400 device based on the same chip as the PS4 Super Slim as I have been saying. Most likely 3 -5 hours gameplay. I fully expect a new Switch based on Xavier by 2019. Sony does not have one franchise that sells on the level of Pokemon, but it does have dozens of franchises which sell very well, and nearly every 3rd party game. You keep compairing the PS3 to the Vita. The PS3 cost $800 to manufacture in 2006, with the most advanced CPU on the market, and one of the highest end GPU's available at the time. PS Vita cost roughly $300 to manufacture at the time it was released. They were 5 years apart. The PS4 had a weak mobile CPU, and a Midrange+ GPU, and cost ~$400 to manufacture when it was released. The PS4 portable in question would be launching 6 years after PS4, using the same chipset as the PS4 Super Slim, which will be very cheap at that point. As I said above, I do not see a PS4 Portable aiming at PS4 Pro specs. There will be mobile devices with more CPU and GPU power than PS4 and close to PS4 Pro by 2020. They will probably be around $300 to manufacture, and sell for $1,200.
The only thing that pushes me a little higher on price is the cost of Solid State Memory. I have no doubt Nintendo will release a Switch based on the Xavier chip by 2019. If they launch in March 2019 the chip will be over a year old. Xavier should be very competitive with PS4 power wise, probably better in some places and worse in others. It should aso offer a massive boost to battery life on the portable unit. The Tegra X2 is already supposed to be able to offer twice the battery life of the Tegra X1 in the current Switch. As for the rest, it comes down to what we have talked about. Do they want to hit rest with a PS5 line of devices, or do they want to continue with PS4 a couple more years. If they stick with PS4, I think we will see a PS4 Premium that offers 4K in all titles along with the PS4 Super Slim, and the potentially a Portable. Not sure if they keep the Pro in this scenario, or just replace it with the Premium. On the other hand they could launch PS5 and PS5 Portable offering 4K at home and 1080p on the go. That would probably be easier to do, and make for a bit more powerful and effecient handheld, but then you loose the 100M strong userbase. However, it goes down, I am very interested in watching it unfold. I really hope they are planning to give us an option to take our PlayStation library on the go.
Hard to say what they will do. There is definitly a strong case for both options. Stick with the PS4 and you have 100M users, and the Portable just kind of slides in their. Then you are starting to get really weak on the CPU side though. Jump to PS5, and building a Portable and Home duo is super easy, but then you are hitting reset, and as we have seen, you never know how that is going to turn out in this market. If you could be absolutely sure there would be no backlash, I think PS4 should go tell 2022, and PS5 should have ~25TFLOPs of GPU power, 128GB of RAM, and a large M.2 NVMe SSD. That would deliver a true next gen home and VR expereince, and push a portable counterpart out of the relm of possibility. However, it seems quite likely that next gen is just going to be a slight nudge regaurdless of this portable thing. I can see a super weak ~12TFLOP, 16 - 24GB RAM, and HDD based device posing as PS5 in 2019 or 2020. If that is the case though, I absolutely hope they intend to do a portable version, because there would be no issue scaling games built for something like that down to a portable unit. |
Any proof or just your assume? And 2020 maybe Tegra X3 will come out for New Switch. Then, PS5 will cost $400 while ps4/5 portable only cost $250 with 4 - 5 hours in 2020? Are you fortuneteller of Sony or something?
