DonFerrari said:
SpokenTruth said:
He does make an interesting point.
PS4 sold a tremendously respectful ~70 million in 4 years. Can it really sell ~80 million more in the next 3 years before PS5 launches? That's a rate of almost 27 million per year. This is PS4's best year and it will be hard to even hit 20 million.
PS2 enjoyed a massive amount of expanded territory growth after PS3 launched. I don't see PS4 getting that same kind of territory growth after PS5 releases. PS3 fell off sharply after PS4 released and now PS4 is already available in China and India. It won't have that untapped market potential that drove PS2 to 150 million.
120 million is the zone. That's an average of 13.3 million over the next 3 years before PS5. It may push to 130 million but that will be tough.
Of course, this is all based on common console generation cycles. They could release a PS4 Super Pro in 2019 for all we know.
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Well PS4 won't stop selling after PS5 releases, but yes, by current situation I expect PS4 to reach 120Mm at most 130M. PS3 died quicker after PS4 released because its gen was very long and it never got to the 100-150 pricepoint really. PS4 may achieve that. PS1 and PS2 both sold very large amounts after successor release.
But I agree with you that Sony launching on others territories later in the lifetime than they do now will probably make the tail smaller as well.
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Just for comparison, PS1 and PS2 both very early in life were chipped for pirate games so those consoles were popular even in much weaker markets for consoles and they were selling because of that were long time. That isnt and want be case with PS4.
