CrazyGamer2017 said:
Again I want to make clear I'm not defending crazy theories and all that stuff but going 100% implies that you know it all that you are some kind of God that knows the entire universe, everything that lives in it, their intentions, their history and so on... It's as if we had lived 1000 years ago and you would have told me that you are 100% certain that man will NEVER fly in the sky cause by what is known 1000 years ago a human flying is absolutely impossible and unthinkable. As for finding us as we are such an insignificantly small planet lost in an insignificant solar system on the outskirts of the Milky Way, I get what you mean, the universe is so unfathomably huge, beyond what most people can conceive that finding us would appear to be pretty much close to impossible and that may be true but my point is we don't know... We don't know what technologies such creatures have. Look at us, 3 billion years ago we were just single cells, 100 million years ago we were mice and other such primitive mammals, about 2 million years ago we slowly began a transition towards intellectual domination though we still were animals, 50 thousand years ago we began mastering tools and at that point it was clear no other animals could catch up with us, 10 thousand years ago we began recording history, 400 years ago we began industrializing our societies, 50 years ago we split the atom and began creating the very first artificial brains known as computers, 20 years ago we began implementing a world wide network in some ways recreating neuronal patterns, some kind of brain at the scale of the planet that we called Internet... What we will be able to achieve in only 100 years could be unthinkable today and what we will be able to achieve in 1 million years which is NOTHING at the scale of the universe and its 13.8 billions years history, we probably don't even have the brain capacity to even remotely understand. By your comments here an there you seem like a smart person which is why I think I can level with you on this notion. The universe is far too mysterious and exotic and we are only beginning to understand what it is made of and how it works. If Aliens were to visit us, they'd have to master technologies that would allow them to transcend the limits of the speed of light as you said earlier in this thread but what if they do? What if all the theories on folding space and creating wormholes were something those aliens master perfectly after maybe millions of years of technological evolution? Again I agree that it's not logical that they come from far, hover in our skies for 5 minutes and leave. But until we have some kind of ultimate proof that we are alone or unnoticed by aliens we can at best consider highly unlikely that we have been visited but we cannot completely rule it out, hence 99% probable that we have not been visited. One last thing, since the 1930's we have been broadcasting signals into space which means that any intelligent species that exists within a radius of roughly 90 light years from earth must have noticed our existence. 90 light years may not be much at the scale of the galaxy but that bubble is growing and I don't know how many stars must be by now inside that bubble, about 100? More? Which means that this 99% I'm arguing about is going to decrease as time goes by, just saying Sorry for the long post. |
This logic doesn't help anyone and only gives fuel to the crazies. It's about probabilities here. Some probabilities are too low to be even considered. Saying "nothing is 100% sure" is not helping anyone and is not driving us forward. It's basically not making a point at all. Yes the possibility of Aliens stumbling upon earth is not absolute zero, but it's as close to zero as it can possibly get. And at some point you have to round numbers to make any sense.
Saying that it's not 100% sure gives the impression that both opinions are equally valid, which they are not. One is backed by numbers and logic and the other is based on wishes and hot air. It's the same tactic radical media is using. They invite 2 climate scientists with opposing opinions as if they are equally valid, completely ignoring that one of the opinions is heavily supported by science and the other is not. It gives a false picture of duality and does a disservice to science as a whole.
Saying that it could be true is not progressing the discussion. It takes it into circles and spreads misinformation. The chances aren't 50:50, they aren't 1:100, they aren't even 1:10000000000. The odds are so low that they become scientifically insignificant and not worth to pursue and waste resources on it. Crazies who put out their theories that have zero backing from science need to be shot down instantly with hard numbers. 99% is not doing that, it's just fueling their delusions. That's why smart people say "it never happened" and get on with their lives because they are bound to be mathematically correct.
As for numbers decreasing, this is false hope again. Most people don't realize how small or big those numbers actually are. 70 years or 90 lightyears might as well be zero in the scale of the universe. And that does not even include the odds of life actually developing and then also being in the exact same time frame. As years increase it actually becomes less and less likely to be visited by a species that picked up our signal, because by the time they reach us we're most likely not even here anymore. Humans will most likely not even exist anymore by the time our first electromagnetic transmissions reach the edge of our own galaxy. It would take 100000 years for the signal to leave the Galaxy. That's just one single galaxy out of trillions. And it's not even a big one. To reach the next Galaxy it's another 2.5 million lightyears. Modern humans have lived for about 20000 years. In that time frame you cannot even travel through a quarter of our own galaxy assuming you can even do it at light speed.
So not only would those aliens have to be residents of our own galaxy, they would also have to be pretty close to our solar system. It's safe to say that there probably is not any developed life right now in our own solar system. The next star system is 4 lightyears away. Now think of how big the chances are that there is actually life and then multiply those chances that it has also been alive within the last 20000 years within this billion years old universe.
People need to know those numbers and most people who do believe that aliens visited us are completely unaware of them and would instantly agree if someone explained to them the actual probabilities. The odds aren't increasing from 1% to 2%. They are progressing in about the same speed as a microbe on a marathon track. Nobody would watch that, because there is no way we will ever see that microbe arrive at its goal.
Last edited by vivster - on 21 December 2017If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.
