"The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

[peachbuggy]

DonFerrari said:

SpokenTruth said:

He does make an interesting point.

PS4 sold a tremendously respectful ~70 million in 4 years.  Can it really sell ~80 million more in the next 3 years before PS5 launches?  That's a rate of almost 27 million per year. This is PS4's best year and it will be hard to even hit 20 million.

PS2 enjoyed a massive amount of expanded territory growth after PS3 launched.  I don't see PS4 getting that same kind of territory growth after PS5 releases. PS3 fell off sharply after PS4 released and now PS4 is already available in China and India. It won't have that untapped market potential that drove PS2 to 150 million. 

120 million is the zone. That's an average of 13.3 million over the next 3 years before PS5. It may push to 130 million but that will be tough.

Of course, this is all based on common console generation cycles.  They could release a PS4 Super Pro in 2019 for all we know.

Well PS4 won't stop selling after PS5 releases, but yes, by current situation I expect PS4 to reach 120Mm at most 130M. PS3 died quicker after PS4 released because its gen was very long and it never got to the 100-150 pricepoint really. PS4 may achieve that. PS1 and PS2 both sold very large amounts after successor release.

But I agree with you that Sony launching on others territories later in the lifetime than they do now will probably make the tail smaller as well.

Well i did say PS2 was the ceiling. I was pretty certain shortly after launch that 100m was certain. I think we can all agree it's now pretty much a lock. It seems to be trending above the PS2 atm and i'm sure it will continue to sell pretty well after the PS5 is launched. Although i wasn't aware PS2 entered into untapped markets after PS5 release. Markets which are now not untapped. So maybe reaching PS2 numbers may be unattainable but i would guess 130m+  is entirely possible. Especially after these surprising sales at the back end of this year!