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Barkley said:
LipeJJ said:

Nah, the test is how it fares on its first 12 months against PS4. This way both will have faced the same months (holidays) nas I bet Switch will come on top. 

Doesn't work exactly like that due to launching in march. Launching in the holidays is like having your birthday at christmas, you'll never get as many presents as you would if they were seperate days. A launch boost and a separate holiday boost is bigger then just a single holiday launch. meaning comparing PS4's Nov13-Oct14 and Switch's March17-Feb18 isn't fine either.

We'll know as soon as one starts dropping behind by a large amount. If Switch consistently falls behind in 2018 to the point that the holidays looping round won't be enough to recover the gap. Then we'll know.

Analogy is flawed tbh as launching in holiday is better because far more people have money to spend during that period as opposed to any other time of the year. You get the launch boost and the holiday boost at once.