PAOerfulone said:
DonFerrari said:
It may not be impossible but Nintendo didn't support their console at the second half even for Wii. And have no precedence of any other consolemaker being able to have such long tail as Sony did.
This thread will be a hallmark of Nintendo fans overly positive expectations that when not met will accuse others of being negative for saying the sales weren't as high as they expected.
Their problem on WiiU gen by they own admission is their lack of experience deving on the HD world much more than the number of systems.
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The Switch is not like any Nintendo console that came before it, including the Wii. It's main premise and concept is a very different animal from the NES -> Wii U.
Like I said, the Switch will be their one and only system going forward. Thus, all of the development that had previously been split between handheld and console are now under one roof. This doesn't just go for 1st party, but 3rd party as well.
That can only work to the Switch's advantage and give it stronger legs than any of Nintendo's previous consoles.
Additionally, it also has the advantage of hardware revisions and upgrades. Nintendo has been revising their handhelds for decades, since the original Game Boy. And thanks to the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X, hardware upgrades are more accepted than ever. So, it's only a matter of time when Nintendo introduces the Switch's equivalent. And when that comes out, you can expect early adopters to upgrade, in addition with those people who have yet to purchase a Switch to see an upgraded model as the opportunity to do so. Extending its legs even further.
Will it have Sony-type legs? I don't think so, but still better than the legs we've seen from most Nintendo systems to date.
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Can't disagree with your points, but considering Nintendo philosophy does it make sense to expect the type of revision PS4Pro and X1X had? Since Nintendo is the company that doesn't regard power the same as other? But sure I agree with someone else that said they think Nintendo can make a full HH and a full desk console both cheaper than the Switch allowing for more battery on HH and power on desk or a better dock to increase the power but keeping the unified development.
We will see. But yes at the moment there is little reason to expect less than 3DS sales... but some people are forcing Switch as having the best of two words... the strong 3-4 years of Wii and DS with the long tail of PS2.
zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:
He is talking about 2013, being around 4M consoles available and sold on Nov+Dec.
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Youre wrong and that makes no sense.
go back and read his post he said it sold 8 million in holiday 2014 (what he calls its first real holiday) when the actual number is more like ~5.5 million.
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Ok so my bad I thought he was discussing the release year.
mutantsushi said:
| Bristow9091 said:
I'm definitely someone who forgets that, I mean, a console generation lasts 6+ years, and knowing that people are buying less than two games per year really baffles me lol, I know I have a lot of PS3 games (Over 200) and I'm currently on around 60 PS4 games (Retail only, not digital, same with PS3) and I know that's considered a lot, but I always assumed that the average would be a lot higher than what it currently is, lol.
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The average console buyer does not buy console on day 1. If they did, all console sales would occur then and none in later years.
With a 6 year gen + constant sales, the average console was purchased 3 years in. Or even 4 w/ console sales boost following price drop.
So that means an average # of games purchased per year is not ~2, but more like ~3 or even ~4 games per year. Physical only.
The latter # seems very reasonable for more casual gamer especially considering many also play games on other platforms.
Of course with paid-online service, profitability for Sony is much better than just game sales (even if free games cannibalize some sales).
Lafiel said:
a holiday close to launch isn't all that effective in pushing an already highly in demand console though,
PS4 was sold out all throughout it and Sony couldn't immediatly increase production/shipments
Nintendo had some months to gauge demand and step up production accordingly
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I think there is something to be said for a non-holiday launch date. First, in much of the world that isn't significant sales period anyways.
Second, there is the difficulties with matching supply and demand. Console makers need to contract with suppliers for X amount of
production capacity which are on long-term basis. It's already understood that leading up to holiday seasons they will "hoard" supply
to be able to meet heightened demand, but aligning launch with holiday just makes so much demand it is impossible to meet demand.
Having launch date separate from holiday spreads that demand out more, allowing production capacity to be closer matched to demand,
and of course such an approach allows for more actual games to be available by the time holiday season comes around, which probably
will yield higher over-all game sales than holiday launches followed by relative games drought.
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No console maker would have 10M consoles ready for launch, so if you can antecipate the release and make like Switch that will allow you to take advantage of increasing production for your first holiday, since holiday release will consume all you make almost as much as a non-holiday release.
Matsku said:
quickrick said:
dude ps4 is gonna dominate switch, relax. in terms of launches ps4 and switch sold about the same 27 days switch shipped 2.74 million, ps4 in 45 days shipped 4.2 million basically what ever was shipped was sold instantly with ps4, it didn't get a holiday boost this is reality. switch si close to ps4 with all of november plus 10 days of december, so do the math.
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I mean the Ps4 hade a full holiday of sales Switch didn't.
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Nope, read all the other answers to see the holiday release had little impact.
We will only be able to compare the speed of sales both consoles have when comparing PS4 2015 numbers with Switch 2018 numbers (baseline after the first real holiday without supply constraints) to see a more clear sales curve.
OTBWY said:
Not exactly. But damned close! |
The small difference in days is almost statistical error or a week of shipment arriving. Because both could be considered to be sold out for almost the entirety of the first 10M sold.
LipeJJ said:
Barkley said:
We'll know if it's going to keep up or not by June, 1st half of 2018 is going to be a real test for the Switch. |
Nah, the test is how it fares on its first 12 months against PS4. This way both will have faced the same months (holidays) nas I bet Switch will come on top.
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The release holiday of PS4 doesn't have the same impact as Switch having the holiday with lead time to prepare. The better comparison on baseline and sale speed will be PS4 2015 x Switch 2018, both after the first Holiday and without supply constraints. I expect Switch to sell close to what PS4 was doing back there.
