My prediction: PS4 will outsell Switch lifetime

[Normchacho]

Mnementh said:

Normchacho said:

I don't know...the Switch has 12 weeks left of it's first year. In the last 12 weeks of its first year the PS4 sold 4 million units. The Switch would need to outpace the rest of it's life so far which included it's launch and it's first November. That's going to be a big ask for 3 weeks in December and then January/February 2018...

I referenced two threads above. This is launched alike the movement so far:

As you can see Switch moves above 3DS and can also match the new momentum of the 3DS post-pricecut (the pricecut is visible). Switch also launched around the same time, will enter the holidays around the same time. As you can see with the holidays boost the 3DS pulls ahead. It seems unlikely the Switch will not do that, even if the holiday-boost isn't that big for it.

The problem with that theory is that VGC has the comparison up to week 33, but we know what the gap is at week 40 now. We know that the gap between the Switch and the 3DS shrinks from 2.1 to 1.5 million units in those 7 weeks. Then you need to account for the fact that December 2011 was the best month the 3DS ever had by a huge margin. It sold 4.76m units and I have no idea why 3DS sales spiked so sharply, but there's no evidence to suggest the Switch will have a December anywhere near that strong.

If the Switch ends 2017 with 12.5m units sold, which I think is very doable, but not a lock, then it will need to average 870K a month to match the PS4s first year. Between April and October the Switch averaged 785k a month. That's the only data we have for the Switch that's outside the launch or the holidays. It's doable, but not likely.