The third-party issue, provided it gets some key titles and exclusives (some exclusives I think from Japan would; but a GTA V port would help a lot), I don't think is going to be a major problem. Indies are already abundant on Switch. In addition, previous Nintendo handheld consoles did not really receive many of the games you mentioned and they still did fine. The biggest concern for Nintendo should be to make sure there is enough first-party content to maintain momentum and build relationships to bring certain key third-party games (like GTA V and Monster Hunter) over.
With that being said though, I too am skeptical (this stems from coming off of the Wii U situation). I would personally love for the Switch to succeed because I primarily game on portable devices (and I hope the Switch can fulfill the purpose of being my primary gaming device for a long time with hopes that Nintendo continues to support it fully for many years), and the Switch is offering something that so far is above what any mobile device offers at this moment in terms of game experiences. At the same time though, it is quite expensive when compared to the other systems, which could lead to momentum declining (particularly if Nintendo does not address the pricing the moment it becomes an issue). In addition, there is always the possibility that we could be heading into a drought year in 2018 with few evergreen Nintendo titles released for Switch (this year we got 4 major ones: 3D Zelda, 3D Mario, Splatoon, and Mario Kart; Nintendo has plenty of evergreen titles left but it is the timing that they release them in that keep momentum steady, increase it, or decline it). With smaller amount of third-party support, Nintendo needs to release high profile first-party games to make the investment worth it for gamers and to keep the system on people's minds. With Wii U and 3DS, we saw many instances of software droughts and development resources being allocated to projects that ended up not doing well with the core audience and not drawing in casuals (Wii Sports compilation on Wii U was a good example of this). Nintendo needs to ensure they have years with software like (in terms of both frequent releases, software quality, and software popularity) they did in 2017, and there is no guarantee that they will continue to do that.
For me to turn from skeptical to optimistic the system has to jump through two milestones for me.
1. By the first half of 2018 (ideally by the end of Nintendo's fiscal year in March) it has to have surpassed Wii U sales.
2. By the end of December 2018 it should have far surpassed GC (ideally it should be in the high 20 million to low 3o millions).
With a price cut and good software releases (like in 2017) I can see them easily doing that. However, if the price is kept the same and the software releases are too sparse or simply not appealing (which I assume would happen if they spend too many resources on trying to create too many highly casual type experiences that failed to capture casuals on 3DS and Wii U) then there is a good chance that we will be looking at another Wii U situation. One other factor is the announcement of the online service next year. The masses might not react to well to their free online suddenly being taken from them (with PS4 and XONE the online was paid from the start, so people knew what they were getting themselves into; for Switch, while Nintendo has said that the free service is just a trial, many people might not know that and might expect the online to remain free).
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