This is like an entry grade level of a synopsis for a theory, even for VGChartz.
But whatever. This is what happens when a company has a very inconsistent track record for console sales. You'll get people doubting their success. Doesn't happen with Playstation and even Xbox is easier to predict. I personally think that the Switch is set for success, but I can at least understand why you think this.
Even if it's very ... misguided.