abronn627 on 02 December 2017
| Shadow1980 said: 130M is kind of a stretch IMO. It's possible, but extremely optimistic, especially with the PS4 not dominating the U.S. market like the PS2 did, and the Japanese market having shrunk a lot since the PS2 days (the PS4 has so far kept pace with the PS2 in Europe, though). The regional dynamics aren't encouraging for 130M being a lock. Also, the importance of individual games is being overestimated, as it often is in these types of discussions. Few games move a lot of hardware by themselves. So far this generation, the biggest system-sellers for the PS4 in the U.S. have been Destiny (and The Taken King to a lesser extent), Arkham Knight (probably largely due to the limited edition bundles), and, if VGC's weekly tracking is to be believed, Black Ops III. For Europe, add FIFA to those. Even a big exclusive like Uncharted 4 caused a very modest bump. 2018 looks to be a great year for games, but will any of those big games listed move a ton of hardware by themselves? No. Many systems get a ton of great games that sell very well. Hardly any of them do anything for sales, especially later in the system's life. About the only game that did anything significant for the PS3 post-Slim was GTA5. For the 360 post-S model? CoD, Gears 3, and, if only barely, Halo: Reach and GTA5. For the Wii post-2009? Bupkis. For the PS2 like ever? Not a damn thing besides GTA. Having a strong library is important, no doubt, but the problem with using that as an argument is that it doesn't entail a very strong lineup in a given year guarantees that year will see better sales than a year with a weaker lineup. Nothing in the sales data suggests that. The PS4 getting a lot of good games, both exclusive and third-party, throughout its was already a given from before it was even released. Individual games are far less important in the long run, with few ever moving massive amounts of hardware by themselves. That leaves price cuts and new SKUs. We already have the latter in the form of the Slim and Pro, so price cuts are going to be the main factor going forward. But price cuts start to lose their effect over time. Eventually, as a console reaches its saturation point and starts to run out of potential customers, price cuts have smaller and smaller impacts. We may see the PS4 drop to $250 permanently here soon, but there's no reason to assume it'll sell better at $250 than at $300. The PS3 Slim was slashed to $250 in 2011 and that cut's effect was modest and short-lived. The PS2 went from merely great sales to taking off like a rocket after its first price cut, but future cuts had far, far smaller effects in both degree and duration. Perhaps cuts to the Pro may help a bit where cuts to the Slim won't, and that could help slow the inevitable decline in PS4 sales, but that effect won't last forever. The PS4 is already getting close to a saturation point. It hasn't quite passed its peak yet, but it was at last count (early June of this year) up to 60.4M globally, and will likely be sitting at 72-74M by year's end. That's a lot for a system that hasn't passed its peak yet. 72M is more than the 360 & PS3 were when they finally passed their peaks. Q2 2011 was unambiguously the start of the decline for both, and by that point neither had reached 70M yet, yet they had incredibly belated peaks compared to any prior system. Going by U.S. & Japan sales (can't find anything for Europe), the PS2 had definitely passed its peak starting Q2 2003, and had shipped 51.2M globally by March 31 that year (meaning sales had to be a bit less than that). Now, to be fair, the PS4 has done better in terms of total sales and global market share than either the 360 or PS3 did, but 72M at the end of Year 4 is a tremendous achievement for a "conventional" console (if we take Japan out of the equation, the PS2 was at less than 62M in the West at the end of 2004; the PS4 will likely be sitting at 66M by year's end sans Japan, making it still the fastest-selling console in the West). It's also an achievement that's probably going to come at the detriment of future years. The PS4 has maintained remarkably stable sales, even growing a bit this year, but this can't keep going on for long. Sony is running out of potential customers. It would not surprise me in the least if Q2 2018 sees a YoY drop in all regions (tax season in the U.S. will probably offset things a bit for Q1). Assuming that this year is the peak, which I think is very likely the case, the PS4 will have peaked earlier than the 360 & PS3 did. But it still has potential for solid legs, better than what the PS3 & 360 had. Assuming the PS5 doesn't launch until Nov. 2020, the PS4 ought to reach 110M by the end of that year, with maybe at most another 10M sold afterward. But 130M will require perhaps as many as 58M after this year, most of which will be sold prior to Nov. 2020 (assuming that is indeed when the PS5 launches). 130M is probably going to require Sony launching the PS5 no earlier than 2021, and even that is a stretch. Personally, I think we'll see at most about 40M in NA, 50M in Europe, 10M in Japan, and maybe 20M from other markets, a total of 120M. The PS4 ought to be close to 100M by the end of 2019, so 110M is a worst-case scenario, and I think 130M is a best-case, so I'm splitting the difference and going with 120M. The PS4 ought to come close to the PS2 in Europe and should about match the PS3 in Japan, while in the U.S. it'll fall well short of the 360, but will still end up the #4 home console ever, several million behind the #3 Wii but well ahead of the current #4 the PS1. |
This post is the most credible analysis of how thing might play out and yet, everyone seems to ignore it.
