| VideoGameAccountant said: It's to bolds, and it's for a simple reason: the PS5 will come out sooner than everyone is expecting. Sony has already stated that the PS4 Pro was a defensive move against PC, as they noted consumers move to PC in a console's midlife. The PS5 will be another half-step to keep players on PlayStation. With more revenue coming from PSPlus, they want to keep consumers on as long as possible. This means Sony has a greater incentive to keep people on PS and not migrating. There is also the reality of Nintendo Switch which will absorb a lot of Sony's software pipeline. Because Sony is dependent on third-party companies to bring the software, they can't let Nintendo remain unchallenged. If Sony waits to long, all of the new projects that are starting could be Switch focused or a Switch exclusive. The big driver is PC, but I think Sony will move as Switch gets more and more software (removing Sony's competitive advantage over Nintendo). I do think projections for PS4 are overly aggressive anyway. Sony projected a decline in shipments which means a decline in sales going forward. 2017 will likely be about 2016 and then decline thereafter. 2018 will not see 20 million sold (18m would be good). It could probably break 100 million over the next two years, but I think it will end up right around there. |
"The PS5 will be another half-step to keep players on PlayStation."
it wont, it ll be its own gen.
"There is also the reality of Nintendo Switch which will absorb a lot of Sony's software pipeline."
Why? PS4 will be at 80m units shipped soon. Why would the switch steal anything software wise from the PS4? it ll be minor, most developers want their stuff on the console with 80m units (vs the one at 13m or so, by then).
"Because Sony is dependent on third-party companies to bring the software, they can't let Nintendo remain unchallenged."
Why is nintendo unchallenged? theres a PS4 and XB1 on the market place too, for people that want a console.
" If Sony waits to long, all of the new projects that are starting could be Switch focused or a Switch exclusive."
This sounds borderline crazy lol. All future software will 100% be switch exclusive confirmed, no more 3rd party for sony right? :)
"I do think projections for PS4 are overly aggressive anyway. Sony projected a decline in shipments which means a decline in sales going forward."
They shipped 20m last year, and this year their planning to ship 19m. They upped their forecast from 18m to 19m, and I wouldnt be surprised if they did more.
So it ll end up another 20m this year too, come march you ll hear sony talking about how it beat their predictions or such.
"2017 will likely be about 2016 and then decline thereafter. 2018 will not see 20 million sold (18m would be good)."
That sounds resonable..... 20m in 2017, like 2016 was, putting it at 80m, and then it does 18m units in 2018 putting it around 98m come start of 2019.
"It could probably break 100 million over the next two years, but I think it will end up right around there."
You just said it would do 18m in 2018 above..... that means it ll probably be around 100m in almost 1 year, not 2.
80m + 18m = 98m, by your own words, it should do what you said break 100m almost within 1 year.
If it does so, and still has 2019,2020 (ps5 launch), 2021,2022,2023 to sell in... you dont think it ll go well over 100m? that doesnt sound logical.
