| KBG29 said:
If they build a PS4 Premium in 2019, stick with modified Jaguar at 2.7 - 3.0GHz, ~10Tflop GPU with some Navi upgrades, 16GB of RAM, and an HDD. Then they can bring out a worth while PS5 in 2021 or 2022. Something in the ballpark of Ryzen 5 or 6 with 8 - 12 cores, a 20+ Tlops GPU, 128GB of RAM, and an 8 - 32TB SSD (depending on price reduction and capacity). This route to me looks safer, as it gives less of a window for anyone to slide in with a noticably better device. The only company that could try to slide in with this stratagy would be MS, but I think they would have to take a hit on every unit if they tried to slide in, in 2020. Depending on when we get to 5 or 3nm may also play into this. 7nm will be here in late 2018 or early 2019. If PS4 Premium is done, then the release of 5 or 3nm fabrication will determine when PS5 comes. It also kind of blocks MS from trying to get the jump start, because, they can't do an XB4 in 2020 on 7nm if 5 or 3nm will be available in 2021 or 2022, becuase it would give Sony a massive advantage at the baseline console next gen. I know this is a general next gen storage tech discussion, but other tech plays into this as well. As a Sony consumer and share holder I am looking at it from the perspective of PlayStation. If I had to make the decision, I would do a 7nm PS4 Premium, and build a true next gen PS5 with NVMe/m.2 Storage as soon as 5 or 3nm fabrication is ready. |
A few things.
- this 7nm process we are all talking about isn't even gauranteed to be available by 2018/2019. Thats just powerpoint talk right now and barring any surprises they don't always come out exactly when expected. Theer is always some sort of hiccup or delay. Like take the 14nm process for instance, believe it or not that has been available since around 2013 when the PS4/XB1 launched. Albeit only from intel and in their highest of the high end processors. It took it another 3 years to become mainstream (i.e: AMD support). Right now, no one has even gone out of risk production phase for the 7nm chiips. Thats assuming any of them has even started.
- Having said that, it would be alsmot ridiculous to be waiting for 3nm that no one is even talking about now. That thing may very well not show up till 2025 or later, especially with how hard it is to work with silicon now at these super small node sizes. At some point even intel anounced they wouldn't use silicon at the 7nm node and opt for an alternative material like graphene or something. They have gone back on that but it just goes to show how hard its getting.
- I think a lot here are underestimating the gains with the 7nm node. Think of it this way, if going from 28nm to 14nm allowed for a 4x bump in processing power in these consoles (they could have achived an at least 2 times bump in the CPU if they wanted but those jaguar cores are hard to improve) then going from 14nm to 7nm would see similar results. Or at least close. So basically, take the XB1x (or even the PS4pro) and multiply that by 3 as a worst case scenario.
That means we can have anywhere between 12TF and 18TF in the next generation of consoles on the GPU side of things. And that is pretty much a gaurantee if they are built on a 7nm process. At that point its just physics lol. Mind you, this is me lowballing it. Factoring a doubling of cores and a small bump to processor clocks. But the actual thing could be a lot better than just those things as their would be improvements in other areas of the chips that would result in all round better performance.
