| TheSource said: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ says Obama has a ~55% chance of winning right now looking at the polls, adjusting for sample sizes & pollster reliability, kerry/bush splits, gore/bush splits, and state demographic data. It gives Obama an average of 278 electoral votes when the possible scenarios base on the polls are played out 10,000 times in a computer simulation if I'm interpreting how the site works correctly. |
Another site you might be interested in is Rasmussenreports.com their polls have always been spot-on and now they have a markets page at markets.rasmussenreports.com They currently show Obama with a 61% chance of winning and mccain with 35%, although it seems that they have slight percentages given to everyone who has even considered running for president this year.
