August 2017 NPD Thread ! Switch Won

[VideoGameAccountant]

Shadow1980 said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

Except PS4 Pro and Slim came out in 2016, so if anything sales will be down because the increase in sales of those systems was last year, esspecially the Uncharted bundle (at least for November and December). Here are some comments from NPD for 2016

September NPD - PS4 Slim releases with Uncharted 4. The system was the 3rd best selling SKU but was still outsold by the XBox One. 

November NPD - PS4 Pro launched. PS4 was the top selling system for the month though it should be noted the analyst pin the increase on the Slim model.

The effect of hardware releases was accounted for in the prior year and this year doesn't have a lot of strong titles. The loot box craze doesn't help. I said this somewhere (think this thread), but the improvement for Sony in the early half of the year was software. Horizon, Tekken and Crash being new titles that did well for the year. Sony is also projecting fewer hardware shipments and Q1 (annual Q2) saw a decline in shipments (meaning less stock in the store). This doesn't spell huge year-over-year increase to me.

One thing I will close on is this. Looking at the NPD data, one thing you can tell is this generation has been abysmal for bringing in customers. For the last 4 months of the year, Software (sans October) and hardware revenue was down, usually around 20-30 percent. Both Sony and Microsoft have heavily relied on new hardware, price cuts and bundles to sell units. This doesn't increase demand like, say, releasing a new game does (as it creates interest that wasn't there before). Sony and Microsoft seem more dependent on moving down the demand curve rather than shifting it. It's an easy fix, but not a great one.

However, neither the Slim nor the Pro had any immediate, obvious effect on PS4 sales. In fact, for whatever reason, neither one prevented the PS4 from being down YoY in both September and November of last year:

While the Slim was also concurrent with a $50 price cut, that didn't appear to help the system any. And the Pro didn't generate enough interest to keep November from being way down. In fact, the XBO was down considerably YoY last November as well:

This suggests that the month was overall not as big relative to December as had been the norm for the previous few years (news reports suggested overall Black Friday spending was down YoY, though certainly not to the extent we saw last year). Last November was pretty rough all around for video games.

The Slim and Pro appear to have had a more delayed effect. Overall, sales were up YoY for the entire March-August period, something we wouldn't expect from software but would expect from the effects of price cuts/major hardware revisions. Meanwhile, the XBO S appears to have had the bulk of its effect for the six-month period from its Aug. 2016 release up to January of this year. It was down a good bit in April, June, and July, showing it didn't have a long-term persistent effect on sales like the 360's own slimline model had in its sales. If I had to hazard a guess, it's entirely possible that the XBO S was having a negative impact on PS4 Slim sales in 2016, but they effectively started to switch places in Q1 this year.

Given these facts, it is entirely possible that the PS4 may be up or at least flat YoY in September and the coming months. Hopefully we get some hardware numbers tomorrow so we can know for sure if the PS4 Slim simply had a slow start.

I think you are looking at your data and trying to get it to fit your pre-determined conclusion. 

First, let's look at November and December of 2016. Both saw a decline in sales over 2015 despite the Pro being released and the Slim model. This comtinued with Jan and Feb also being down or flat. Sales didn't increase until March. Your claim is the PS4 Slim had a delayed effect and that people started buying it around March. But here is what was said about the November NPD

The PlayStation 4 was the top-selling hardware system in the month, driven by the PS4 Slim System 500GB Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End Bundle,” said Naji. “This SKU accounted for 30 percent of all hardware units sold.

So the PS4 Slim did have an effect on sales and PS4 Slim accounted for 30 percent of all hardware (this was also a strong month for the 3DS as Pokemon released). 

But March through August is up yes? What happened? Numerous big games released during this time period. Horizon, Crash, Tekken and Injustice all released in this time frame and these were all games that 1)Were not already available on the PS4 and 2)Were with in the top 10 during their release (and ayt least 3 stuck around for more than a month). So what is more likely to cause an increase in PS4 sale? Would it betwo SKU 4 months after they were released? Or would it be numerous big hit titles releasing around this time frame? Proximity would say its the latter, not the former. 

Software sells hardware, not the other way around (were that true, PS3 wouldn't have been such a disaster with all tis features). People don't just buy a box and let it sit there. They need games for it, and new games means a new reason to buy a console. Tekken wasn't on the PS4 until 7 released. Now there is a new reason to buy. Horizon and Injustice weren't on the PS4. Now they were. There was a new model of PS4 for June, but if you look at the charts, you'll see a lot of big games throughout this period which can't be explained by hardware alone.

What you are doing is saying "Hardware releases are the number one reason for increase in hardware sales." You then look at the data and make it fit that conclusion. The PS4 Slim and Pro released in Holiday 16, but you are saying sales didn't increase until 4 months later. DId people not know the systems existed? There is no reason to expect that a new hardware would not sell its best closet to its release, everything else kept equal. A better explination is that something else happened to increase sales. That something else would be hardware. Note the biggest spikes for 17 were closest to software. Horizon launched at the end of March and Crash and Tekken launched around June/July. This would explain the increases.

But this conclusion also means that hardware revisions alone do not increase sales (at least at a level high enough). The PS4 Pro and SLim didn't increase sales YoY from November to February. If those systems didn't result in a YoY increase in the season they were released, why should we expect there to be an increase in the season with (as far as I know) no new hardware. If anything, we would see sales decline YoY for 2017 (for the end of the year). Sales can increase due to software. Pokemon gave the 3DS a better 2017 than 2016. The increase in the PS4 in Mar-Aug is due to software boosting sales, but it may not continue into the Holiday season. Sony's shipments being down supports that conclusion.