PS5 Will Release Early 2019 (Opinion)

[VideoGameAccountant]

Nuvendil said:

VideoGameAccountant said:

I disagree. Generations are going to get shorter, not longer, thanks to a major system everyone in this thread is pretending doesn't exist: the PC.

Look at it this way. Let's say I care about graphics and performance. Should I get the PS4 Pro? Or should I get "the most powerful console ever," the XBox One X. How about, instead, I just build a PC. With a PC, I can build a system that runs 4K at 60 FPS. Sure, right now you might spend more to build this PC, but prices on parts go down quickly, and it wont be long before you can build a PC that outdoes the Pro for less than what Sony is selling the Pro for. By 2022, as you suggested, you'd get a far better PC for cheaper. In Febuary of 2017, Logical Incriments had a build for $415 that would be about as good as the PS4 Pro. They also provided a system that was better than the PS4 Pro for $550. By 2019, that $550 build could easily be cheaper than a Pro. Sure, Sony can drop the price, but if performance is a big selling point already, then why not spend a bit more and get more. Keep in mind that PCs are also cheaper to upgrade as oppose to buying a new system.

With Sony and Microsoft going the route of power and performance, they will have to compete with the PC. Even back in 2013, not every game was coming to the PC or the PC would have the worst version. Now, almost every game that isn't first party will come to the PC and the PC will be the best versions. Developers are already complaining that the consoles are holding them back. Unlike Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft don't have a strong portfolio of IPs that can draw customers in. They are highly reliant on 3rd parties to provide the software for their systems. 

Sony is at risk of having their market being absorbed by PC. By focusing on power, customers may make the jump to PC as the PC offer a better library (including previous generation games) and offers better performance. If Playstation's hook is "Our games look the best," then consumers will go to where they do look the best: PC. This is partly why the Pro exist in the first place. Sony needs to compete with PC, where better parts keep coming out older parts get cheaper, and the half-step with the Pro is how they do it. The PS5 will likely be a another half-step to complete with the PCs you can build then. Again, by the time 2022 rolls around, the PS4 Pro will be a joke in terms of performance. Sony will have to compete with the constant incrimental improvements that are seen in the PC world. The half-steps are how they do it. Expect the generations (for Sony at least) to move in tandum with PC parts. Expect the generations to be shorter. 

If sony pursues that, they are fools.  PCs have always been this way.  Chasing PC is pointless because building your own PC will virtually always be more cost effective because golly gee it turns out DIY is cheaper than off the shelf.  

Consoles are about easy, off the shelf convenience and guaranteed support.  That's how they carved out a massive market despite PCs.  That's how they killed Arcades despite arcade cabinets being much more powerful at the time.  The fact you cqn build or have built a better PC for more bang for buck doesn't matter because the target market of consoles doesn't care.  They want to pickup a console, plug it in, fire it up and that's it.  They want that convenience.  

Chasing PC will just result in rapidly decreasing appeal in each mini gen as each leap is markedly less impressive than the already unimpressive PS4 to Pro jump (in the eyes of the market, not to me necessarily).  

And diminishing returns effects PCs too.  It's not like it doesn't apply there.  Yeah you could marginally outclass the Pro for 400 in a year or two if you have one built.  It will be a pitifully small real world performance difference.

Oh and people also don't generally like plugging their PC into their TV.  Which is where consoles are deliberately targeted.  

Generations need to get longer.  If Sony goes for 2 year gens or some nonsense, it will be a colossal train wreck.  And the sales performance of the Pro I think guarantees they won't go that route.  

Let's talk convenience. Console did take out arcades because gaming at home was more convenient and the systems became good enough as technology advanced. But the PS4 and XBox One are not the convient console. The Nintendo Switch is. Much like the console before it, it's more convenient as you can take it on the go and play on a TV, and the system is "good enough" (heck, its able to run DOOM and Wolfenstein 2). So if consumers are looking for convenience, they aren't going to go to a Playstation, they are going to go to a Switch. With Switch getting more third party games, it's going to take over the lower end of the market that you are talking about.

The mini-PCs, the PS4 and XBox One, aren't really that convenient. Sure, you can plug your PS4 to a TV, but you still have to deal with downloading all the updates which takes far longer on the PS4 than it does the PC. PC are even easier to build and place like BestBuy's Geek Squad will build the PC for you. I suspect that it will be even easier to build a PC in 2022. PC has services like Steam which makes it easy and you don't even have to pay for online.

What you are ignoring is that PS4 and XBox One are competing for the same market as the PC. The only people who would buy a PS4 over a PC are those that are enthusiast enough to want graphics and power but are too lazy to do the extra effort to build a PC. Heck, you don't even have to build one as you can always buy a premade one. Sure, it's a bit more expensive, but these machines are already expensive. The PS4 launched between $400 and $500. The PS5 could easily be more expensive. 

This is why Sony has to launch consoles more frequently. Sony can't compete with Nintendo with the Switch. The PSP and PSVita proved that. So that market is gone for Sony. And since the PS3, Sony has focused their consoles on being more expensive and "powerful." This was doable in generation 7 and the beginning of Generation 8, but it's not going to work in Generation 9. It's getting easier to get into PC gaming and PCs are getting most of the games Sony gets. Unless you REALLY have to have Uncharted, then there isn't much of a reason to get a PS4 over just building your own PC. 

You say releasing every 2 years or so is a trainwreck. I say it will be a trainwreck if they don't release soon. Using the 2022 date again, if Sony waits that long, they won't be able to sell a PS5. Developers will either make for the Switch (which will have the install base) or PC. The customers who Sony is targetting will move to PC as all of the games will be released there and the new cards will be better than the PS4 Pro. Developers aren't going to be as keen on building Sony's install base for them as they were in Generation 8. There are more alternatives now for developers outside of the XBox and Playstation. If Sony waits too long, consumers and developers will just move to greener pasters.