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TH3-D0S3R on 14 October 2017
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Dulfite said:
Soundwave said:

It's unlikely Trump will win again IMO. 

Hard right and hard left voters don't decide elections, it's the middle that does, the middle doesn't care about extreme left/right politics from the supreme court.  Trump won the election by a razor thin margin of 70,000 votes from Michigan, Pennslyvania, and Wisconsin, three states that are generally blue. 

IMO he won't hold any of those states next time, Democrats will focus hard on the midwest blue strongholds unlike Clinton who took them for granted. Also I think the African American vote was down, which explains a lot of Clinton's losses, but Trump in antagonizing the African American community especially with the NFL and Charlotteville thing is going to find a lot of anger and I think there will be higher AA voting rates in Pennslyvania and Michigan especially. 

Those 70,000 votes flip or those people stay home and Trump is fucked. Beyond that I think a lot of moderate/non-party alligned voters were willing to give him a shot last time as a novelty of a non-politican, but that's going to gone by next election, when you are president for 4 years, you are a politican (and likely one people are starting to get sick of hearing about every day) whether you like it or not. 

Ok, where to begin. Not gonna argue, just gonna state my opinions which could be totally wrong, but I'll state them anyway. In short, I disagree.

While your right about extremists not being the deciding factor, it isn't always the moderates that decide elections. A lot of it has to do with voter turnout. If people are unmotivated by a candidate (as many weren't by Clinton due to all the scandals and laws she broke), then they won't vote in numbers. Also, when Obama won like 95+5 of the black vote, you could just tell that many voted for him simply because he was black. All of a sudden the black votes drop tremendously because you've got an old white person running no matter who you vote for (Trump/Clinton/Bernie/Johnson).

Trump has been fighting for jobs and with a lot of success. I believe I read recently that jobs have been going up a good amount and the overall value of the economy has gone up over  $5-6 trillion since he took office (value, not talking about anything else). I think workers will vote for him if they get jobs because of his initiatives in keeping companies in America. I also think the rust belt will vote for him again because Trump is focusing more on helping the middle working class and not the poor (whereas Obama often screwed the working class with Obama care in favor of the poor).

This statement right here.

America is in a gridlock. The Rust Belt is the main area that I can see currently undergoing a transition. Democrats have transitioned their focus from the working man to the city occupants, and while I think this would be a good move 20 years from now, they did it a tad early and policy wise will drastically affect them for years to come. Not every state is Cali or the Northeast Coast, so preaching message you may give to people in California will not appeal factory workers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

If Trump gets more jobs in these states and gets the tax cuts he desires, I cannot see him losing in 2020.