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Leadified on 14 October 2017
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JRPGfan said:
Leadified said:

Hmm, it's possible. 360 peaked in Year 6 (PS3 in Year 5) so history is in the PS4's favour. Price drops will definitely help out too. PS4 could also make it's own trend too, I was looking at PS2 shipments which doesn't follow the same pattern as PS360. So who knows, it's even possible 2018 could be down and 2019 be the peak.

Holy fudge you guys are optimistic about the PS4.

If it does 19m this year, and more next (2018), and even more than one after (2019).....

What are you guys expecting?

113m+ by the time its jan 2020?..... and where does PS4 lifetime go then? like 130-140m?

Bold: I think that would be pretty unlikely...more of just a fun thought experiment.

Realistically I think it will pass 100M sometime in 2019. Sony's current prediction for April 2018 shipments is 78 million, assuming they ship 18 million in 2017. If that remains flat in 2018 then you'll get 96M in April 2019, a slight decline would still mean the PS4 should pass 100M sometime in 2019. What happens after is not so clear, will Sony keep the PS4 floating on the market or gradually replace it with the PS5?

I'm not too sure on lifetime figures for each of those scenarios right now...