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KLAMarine on 10 October 2017
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sc94597 said:
KLAMarine said:

Where did you get the ".000001%" number from?

To that statement I would counter that I never stated a warmer climate would cause extreme weather or bring to an end calm weather, all I claimed is warmer oceans would amplify extreme weather if said extreme weather were to manifest.

I didn't get the ".0000001%" it is a hyperbolic hypothetical to make a point. But if you read the article I posted one of the meteorologist mentioned how there should be a 10% surge in rainfall by the end of the century, and there is no reason to believe this increase is going to happen linearly. But that is mostly a guess. We don't know what the actual increase is, and that is why we shouldn't talk as we do. 


"According to Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center, the amount of increased precipitation in Harvey is not significant. Landsea expects a 10 percent surge in rainfall by the end of the century due to climate change, which he predicts would only have only increased rainfall by an inch or two in this case.

Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said he could justify a 5 to 15 percent increase in rainfall during Harvey from climate change effects, which then increase with natural variability."


Fair enough. 

Noted, thanks.

fatslob-:O said:
KLAMarine said:

This may come as a surprise but predicting short term weather changes is more difficult than predicting longer term changes.

For example, I can't tell you with 100% accuracy that tomorrow will be warmer or colder than today but I am willing to bet big money that in the Northern hemisphere, summer 2018 will be warmer than winter 2017.

That's not even true with sensitive and chaotic systems such as the climate ... 

Are you willing to bet big money that summer's in the northern hemisphere will warmer than the previous summer's in 100, 10000 or even a million years ? 

KLAMarine said:

Ah yes, that familiar claim: that CO2 concentrations were 10x higher back then and yet we had ice ages. This is completely, positively, undeniably TRUE!...

...

BUT our sun was also much weaker then too! Understand that our CO2 levels alone does not determine average world temperatures, it's far more complicated than that and the sun certainly plays a role. Time does too and melting immense masses of snow takes time the same way bringing water to a boil takes time so it's not incompatible that there was a period when we had both a snowy Earth and high CO2 concentrations at the same time.

@Bold Which is why we should all calm down even as CO2 levels are spiking when solar activity is just as big of a factor in determining average temperatures ... (even a change in the Earth's orbit could affect temperatures!) 

The fate of Earth is boiling oceans either way so we have to find a new planet to live on (if our species even survives that long) whether if we continue to use fossil fuels or not ... 

"That's not even true with sensitive and chaotic systems such as the climate ... 

Are you willing to bet big money that summer's in the northern hemisphere will warmer than the previous summer's in 100, 10000 or even a million years ? "

>If the Earth's movements around the sun don't change in those years then yes.

"Which is why we should all calm down even as CO2 levels are spiking when solar activity is just as big of a factor in determining average temperatures ... (even a change in the Earth's orbit could affect temperatures!)"

>We can't do anything about the Sun's activity or the Earth's orbit (yet) but we can do something about the levels of CO2 in our atmosphere.

"The fate of Earth is boiling oceans either way so we have to find a new planet to live on (if our species even survives that long) whether if we continue to use fossil fuels or not ... "

>You're thinking too far off to the future. It's the near future that is more pressing.