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sc94597 on 10 October 2017
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KLAMarine said:
sc94597 said:

Sure, but if only increased it by .000001% per year, why would we care? Magnitude matters just as much as whether or not its happening, especially when we are making cost-benefit-risk assessments. 

Where did you get the ".000001%" number from?

sc94597 said:

This is still a global claim though, because storms are not going to be more extreme everywhere in the world. So using global trends to explain any particular intense storm without empirical evidence of causation does harm, because when one sees a region with calmer weather they are going to say, "What are you talking about? The weather is calmer here." Since you can't verify causation, you can't make the claim you made. 

To that statement I would counter that I never stated a warmer climate would cause extreme weather or bring to an end calm weather, all I claimed is warmer oceans would amplify extreme weather if said extreme weather were to manifest.

I didn't get the ".0000001%" it is a hyperbolic hypothetical to make a point. But if you read the article I posted one of the meteorologist mentioned how there should be a 10% surge in rainfall by the end of the century, and there is no reason to believe this increase is going to happen linearly. But that is mostly a guess. We don't know what the actual increase is, and that is why we shouldn't talk as we do. 


"According to Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center, the amount of increased precipitation in Harvey is not significant. Landsea expects a 10 percent surge in rainfall by the end of the century due to climate change, which he predicts would only have only increased rainfall by an inch or two in this case.

Kevin Trenberth, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said he could justify a 5 to 15 percent increase in rainfall during Harvey from climate change effects, which then increase with natural variability."


KLAMarine said:

To that statement I would counter that I never stated a warmer climate would cause extreme weather or bring to an end calm weather, all I claimed is warmer oceans would amplify extreme weather if said extreme weather were to manifest.

Fair enough.