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Also - why treat action and inaction differently? What, specifically, differentiates the two?

 

I feel that any choice we make should be measured by evaluated by simply looking at decisions as a set of probability fields, evaluating the ideal situation to your specific choices.



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.