PS5 Will Release Early 2019 (Opinion)

[VideoGameAccountant]

I see a lot of talk about XBox, but there are two systems that seem absent from this discussion: Switch and PC.

The XBox isn't that high of a threat for Sony. Mircosoft will either shift to PC to protect Windows or falter so much that it wont matter what they do (which seems to be the case as they have been canceling so many games). Switch and PC put Sony between a rock and a hard place. Switch offer mobility allowing you to take console games on the go. Wolfenstein 2, despite being released a few months later, is a game that is on both systems, but the Switch allows you to take the game on the go. On the other hand, the PC is more powerful and is about the same price. You can build a system comparable to the PS4 Pro without spending too much and you have access to a larger library of games.

Right now, Sony is losing its niche. It uses to be that Nintendo dominated the low end of the market, Sony and Microsoft dominated the middle and PC dominated the high end. Now, Switch and PC are absorbing the middle. Sony (and Microsoft) are overly reliant on third-party titles to move systems, but more companies will port to these two systems in order to recoup their enormous budget. Sony has shown they can't compete with first-party titles, so they are in trouble if they can't get that area up to Nintendo levels soon.

A lot of commentors said, "why release soon when PS4 is doing well?" The issue is the market is very future focused. PS4 is doing well now, but there will be a time when Sony has to move on. Console generations are a 5-7 year endeavor, so if Sony doesn't get it right, they will have an awful few years. With gaming being the major sector and the company having a lot of debt and poor liquidity, the company could be a going concern if they don't get this right.

If Sony waits until 2020 to release a new system, this means Nintendo dominates the market and PC will being to absorb Sony's customers (of the two, PC is the bigger threat as there isn't enough to differentiate the two). Why invest in a PS5 when you built a PC in 2018, 2019 or 2020 and all the games are coming to PC anyway. More developers will be looking at Switch and PC first because these areas already have the install base. Publishers have been looking more and more at PC as the user base has grown and game budgets have expanded. Additionally, you have more than a few developers lamenting consoles as they feel they hold games back. In Japan, developers will quickly move to Switch much like they did with the DS and 3DS.

So where does Sony release? They release too soon, they will piss off core fans as a lot of PS4 titles will be moved to PS5. They can't release late as Switch and PC will absorb Sony's market and steal development resources. The best time to release is early 2019. It only gives Switch 2 free years on the market and may stave off the growing PC threat. That said, Sony needs to start looking at a way to differentiate the Playstation line. Sony's niche wont last much longer.