RolStoppable said:
1, Yes, because in that scenario the Switch is going to beast so hard throughout its life that it will leave the 3DS in the dust anyway. 2. I don't see how Nvidia Shield is supposed to be proof for anything. That thing sells in such low quantities that it shouldn't even be brought up in the first place. If there are no component shortages, then Nintendo's forecast will increase at the end of this month because the demand for Switch is certainly there. If there's no increase, then investors will ask why and we'll get confirmation from Nintendo that component shortages are indeed a very real thing. 3. It reflects poorly on a company when they can't meet their forecasts. There aren't many instances where a console manufacturer made an adjustment after the first quarter of a fiscal year, so the lack of an upwards adjustment isn't indicative of anything. |
This is as far back as Nintendo's forecasts go:
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/earnings/yearindex.html
Nintendo only ever made adjustments in the first quarter on 3 separate occasions. In the first 2 instances, the DS and Wii were selling way above expectations after March 2006 and after March 2007 respectively. The 3rd time was when the DS and Wii were both underperforming after March 2011. Immediate changes needed to be made to reflect the sales performance. But you are correct, it's rare for a company like Nintendo to revise their forecast in the first quarter under normal circumstances.
I think Nintendo are being a little more conservative this time around, because they were overly ambitious with their projections in the past. It doesn't instill confidence in your investors, when you're constantly slashing your forecast after making a bold projection. Ultimately, accurate projections are incredibly tough to make. More often than not, you're going to be way off the mark. Even the biggest analysts with all the data in the world have widely differing views on the Switch's first year performance.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2017-03-03-analysts-cant-agree-on-switch-potential
| Fiscal Year | Q4 Report (Initial Forecast) |
Q1 Report (1st Revision) |
Q2 Report (2nd Revision) |
Q3 Report (3rd Revision) |
Q4 Report (Actual Result) |
| FYE March 2005 | GBA HW 10.20m NDS HW 12.40m GCN HW 2.80m |
No Change | GBA HW 11.00m (+0.80m) NDS HW 12.00m (-0.40m) GCN HW 2.40m (-0.40m) |
No Change | GBA HW 8.33m NDS HW 11.46m GCN HW 2.35m |
| FYE March 2006 | GBA HW 2.50m NDS HW 16.00m WII HW 6.00m |
NDS HW 17.00m (+1.00m) | GBA HW 3.30m (+0.80m) NDS HW 20.00m (+3.00m) |
GBA HW 4.00m (+0.70m) NDS HW 23.00m (+3.00m) |
GBA HW 4.34m NDS HW 23.56m WII HW 5.84m |
| FYE March 2007 | NDS HW 22.00m WII HW 14.00m |
NDS HW 26.00m (+4.00m) WII HW 16.50m (+2.50m) |
NDS HW 28.00m (+2.00m) WII HW 17.50m (+1.00m) |
NDS HW 29.50m (+1.50m) WII HW 18.50m (+1.00m) |
NDS HW 30.31m WII HW 18.61m |
| FYE March 2008 | NDS HW 28.00m WII HW 25.00m |
No Change | NDS HW 30.50m (+2.50m) WII HW 27.50m (+2.50m) |
NDS HW 31.50m (+1.00m) WII HW 26.50m (-1.00m) |
NDS HW 31.18m WII HW 25.95m |
| FYE March 2009 | NDS HW 30.00m WII HW 26.00m |
No Change | WII HW 20.00m (-6.00m) | No Change | NDS HW 27.11m WII HW 20.53m |
| FYE March 2010 | NDS HW 30.00m WII HW 18.00m |
No Change | NDS HW 23.50m (-6.50m) WII HW 17.50m (-0.50m) |
NDS HW 22.50m (-1.00m) WII HW 16.00m (-1.00m) |
NDS HW 17.52m WII HW 15.08m |
| FYE March 2011 | NDS HW 11.00m 3DS HW 16.00m WII HW 13.00m |
NDS HW 9.00m (-2.00m) WII HW 12.00m (-1.00m) |
NDS HW 6.00m (-3.00m) | NDS HW 5.50m (-0.50m) 3DS HW 14.00m (-2.00m) WII HW 10.00m (-2.00m) |
NDS HW 5.10m 3DS HW 13.53m WII HW 9.84m |
| FYE March 2012 | NDS HW 2.50m 3DS HW 18.50m WII HW 10.50m |
No Change | 3DS HW 17.50m (-1.00m) WII HW 5.00m (-5.50m) WIU HW 5.50m |
NDS HW 2.30m (-0.20m) 3DS HW 15.00m (-2.50m) WII HW 4.00m (-1.00m) WIU HW 4.00m (-1.50m) |
NDS HW 2.35m 3DS HW 13.95m WII HW 3.98m WIU HW 3.45m |
| FYE March 2013 | 3DS HW 18.00m WII HW 2.00m WIU HW 9.00m |
No Change | No Change | 3DS HW 13.50m (-4.50m) WII HW 1.20m (-0.80m) WIU HW 2.80m (-6.20m) |
3DS HW 12.24m WII HW 1.22m WIU HW 2.72m |
| FYE March 2014 | 3DS HW 12.00m WII HW 0.50m WIU HW 3.60m |
No Change |
No Change |
3DS HW 9.00m (-3.00m) | 3DS HW 8.73m WII HW 0.46m WIU HW 3.38m |
| FYE March 2015 | 3DS HW 7.60m WII HW 0.10m WIU HW 3.40m |
No Change | No Change | No Change | 3DS HW 6.79m WII HW 0.11m WIU HW 3.26m |
| FYE March 2016 | 3DS HW 5.00m WIU HW 0.80m |
No Change | 3DS HW 6.00m (+1.00m) | 3DS HW 7.20m (+1.20m) | 3DS HW 7.27m WIU HW 0.76m |
| FYE March 2017 | 3DS HW 6.00m SWI HW 10.00m |
No Change | |||
| FYE March 2018 |
