| AngryLittleAlchemist said: Oh don't get me wrong, of course we all want to know what the Switch's lifetime success will be after supply issues are figured out. But I can't stand it when people are waiting for something to happen, hopeful that it will have the outcome it wants them to have. It seems to me that Lawlight only wants to dismiss any supply constraints, or wants them to be over, just so he can critize sales. It's more like he's just waiting for confirmation bias rather than interesting data. |
I can definitely see and relate to the people's point around here about Lawlight's agressiveness in validating his confirmation bias ... (He's being fairly terse regarding Switch's supply issue but I guess he can go on celebrating how stock is resolved in Canada and soon to be for the US ?)
| AngryLittleAlchemist said: Regarding your question, I feel it's kind of backwards logic. To think the Switch will lose momentum in 2018 because it doesn't have one game that will sell 5M+ lifetime is to say that the people buying games like Breath of the Wild, Super Mario Odyssey, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, or Splatoon 2 all already have Switchs. In reality, the Switch could quite easily coast off those games for a couple of months into 2018. It's not like the Switch is going to stop at January and every Splatoon, Mario, Zelda, or Mario Kart fan will have a Switch. Unless you just expect the most insane attach rates of any console on a 10M install base. |
Which is why I stressed "will go on to sell 5M+ units in their lifetime" but the Switch can't keep coasting off released titles forever as the main driver of hardware sales. Eventually they'll have to look for those immediate boosts to maintain their current hardware sales rate in addition to their previously released titles. I assume targetting a 5M+ selling game for each half of the year should be their goal when their IPs have some of the highest sales inequality ...
| AngryLittleAlchemist said: I think there will probably be one or two big system sellers in 2018 with enough momentum to 2017 and enough semi-big releases to carry it throughout the year. To say if it will be a huge success or not? That's not my place, I simply don't know. Which again, is why i'm not rooting for confirmation bias. I'd prefer if the Switch sold well, but i'm not going to say it will. |
I would hope so too for Nintendo's sake ...
I'm especially curious about what those 'semi-big' releases are. It'll be interesting to see if there are new IPs on the horizon from Nintendo next year and how AAA third party support will play out in 2018 ... (I expect another entry for Animal Crossing next year)
