caffeinade said:
I don't have an opening to this thread so...
Didn't Horizon Zero Dawn only cost ~50 million USD?
I am not sure if that includes marketing, but lets say it does not.
Add another $50 million USD to that figure, to reach $100 USD.
Any game that is decent, looks like $50 million dollars and has $50 million is marketing, is pretty much guaranteed to sell over three million units.
Lets assume that the publisher (taking out platform fees later) gets three quarters of the opening price ($60 USD) for each unit sold so $40.
We are taking into account retail's cut and price drops, but remember there are special editions too.
Digital distribution has a higher margin, so there is that too.
The way I got this number (mostly guess work) is due to the fact that a game sees a decent chunk of its sales in the first week or so.
3 million * $40USD = 120 million USD.
Take away 30% for platform fees.
Leaving 84 million USD to cover the $100 million USD development + marketing budget.
There is basically no way for a game to fail if it is handled sensibly.
Remember these numbers are Way off, most AAA games will sell one or two million units within three months, and before any price drops.
Hell even Mass Effect Andromeda will hit two million sold before 12 weeks(if it hasn't already).
Though it is likely they have dropped the price at least once to trick people into buying the game.
Rise of the Tomb Raider (Which was for one year a XOne, X360, PC Exclusive):
X360 = 0.35 million units.
Rise of the Tomb Raider (Xbox 360) - Sales, Wiki, Cheats, Walkthrough, Release Date, Gameplay, ROM on VGChartz
XOne = 1.54 million units
Rise of the Tomb Raider (Xbox One) - Sales, Wiki, Cheats, Walkthrough, Release Date, Gameplay, ROM on VGChartz
PS4 = 1.73 million units
(And was released one year after the other versions)
Rise of the Tomb Raider (PlayStation 4) - Sales, Wiki, Cheats, Walkthrough, Release Date, Gameplay, ROM on VGChartz
PC, Steam = 1.81 million units
(Remember this is not the only place to get the game on PC)
http://steamspy.com/app/391220
This equals about 5.43 million units sold.
5.43 million units * $40USD average sale price
= 217.2 million dollars
Now reduce that by 30%
152 million USD remains.
Remember that selling games directly is not the only way that a publisher can make money (Besides Lootboxes and DLC).
Merchandise, exclusivity deals, the licensing of tech, cross promotion deals (Assassins Creed X Final Fantasy), movies, marketing deals (Destiny 2 and Playsation, Assassin's Creed (the new one) and Xbox), In game advertisement / Product placement.
DLC, like expansions and added campains (which do not take anywhere near the effort of making a full game) are a decent way of making a game profitable.
AAA landmark titles should be treated as loss-leaders.
You should use a high quality title to attract people to your brand.
While you use the tech, assets, ect to profit off a job well done.
Spinoff titles, standalone DLC and dumb stuff like Nintendo's free Mercades Mario Kart 8 DLC are the way to go for consumer friendly money making.
Trying to force every part of a game to be profitable is not sustainable.
I hope you enjoyed the read.
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